Playing the Fool
We will never win until we realize we are not playing the same game
Once again, Iran has “broken” the negotiated ceasefire with the US by attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. What President Trump has not understood up to this point, but may finally be realizing, is that the goals of the US and the Iranians are not aligned and never will be. Therefore, any “understanding” that the US achieves is not worth the paper it is written on. Like Lucy (Iran) holding the football for Charlie Brown (the US), Iran insists that “this time” they are really and truly telling the truth and will live up to their commitments. Until we acknowledge they will always lie, the US will continue to be played the fool.
The apocalyptic Shia theocracy, which has ruled Iran since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, is motivated by Islamic Shia theology, with the goal of facilitating the return of the Twelfth Imam, the Mahdi. Like the second coming of Christ, the Mahdi is prophesied to return and lead a global Islamic kingdom. The period preceding the Mahdi’s return is foretold to be marked by extreme injustice, violent upheaval, and mass bloodshed. In order to pave the way for the Mahdi’s return, the enemies of Islam must be vanquished, in particular Israel and the US, and the Iranian theocracy has repeatedly, publicly, and violently reiterated these goals since its founding.
When the negotiations are viewed through this lens, it is easy to see how any agreements between Iran and the US are essentially meaningless, as the US views the world in economic terms (how can we achieve the best deal for the US), while the Iranians view the world in eschatological terms (how can we bring about the end times). From this perspective, the constant betrayals of commitments by the Iranians are not a surprise, but exactly what should be expected. They are trying to foment chaos and violence to accelerate their end times vision. To the extent that they can enrage the bull (Trump) to act out by their constant deceptions, they are achieving their aims with the added benefit of frustrating those of the US to restore commerce in the Strait.
What then is the answer? It would seem that the only permanent answer is the decisive and permanent removal of the Iranian theocracy, in effect, killing or crippling the religion that drives the government and its actions. The question is how to do so, as you cannot kill an idea by bombing a building or even occupying a country (e.g., Afghanistan). As the mass attendance at the state funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini shows (an estimated 10 million people), while there may be suppressed desires for freedom in the Iranian population, there are also large numbers who are Shia supporters, likely willing to violently support and advance their cause, both directly and indirectly through proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Should Trump be blamed for the state of events? I don’t think so, because the Iranians would have proceeded with their plans for bringing about the end times regardless of whether the US acted or not. If Trump had not destroyed (for the moment) their capabilities, then it is certain that Iran would have proceeded with their plans for nuclear arms and would have used them, probably against Israel, to accelerate their vision. By acting as we have, we may have forestalled one avenue, but we have not caused them to deviate from their goal; we have only changed the path.